Models

Model Name Resolution Forecast Depth Temporal Step Best Use Cases (incl. UK severe thunderstorm relevance)
Global Models
≈9 km 10 days 6-hourly World-leading deterministic global model; best for medium-range thunderstorm synoptic patterns affecting the UK.
≈14 km 15 days 6-hourly ECMWF ensemble prediction system (51 members); best medium-range probabilistic storm risk tool for the UK.
≈23 km 16 days 6-hourly Good for broad thunderstorm signals and Atlantic synoptic setups; limited UK convective detail.
≈46 km 16 days 6-hourly GFS global ensemble (31 members); useful for probabilistic signal of broad thunderstorm environments at extended range.
~10 km 6 days ~4 min Good for large‑scale thunderstorm setups (jet stream, troughs). Too coarse for storm‑scale detail.
~20 km 10 days ~5 min Useful for probabilistic environments (CAPE, shear). Not storm‑resolving.
≈22 km 10 days 3-hourly Environment Canada global model; useful for medium-range Atlantic synoptic setups that influence UK weather.
≈13 km 7.5 days 3-hourly DWD global model; good global synoptic resolution for mid-range UK thunderstorm environment guidance.
≈27 km 10 days 3-hourly Australian Bureau of Meteorology global model; provides an independent mid-range perspective on Atlantic and European patterns.
≈46 km global / ≈10 km Europe 4 days 1–3-hourly French global-regional model; good for synoptic thunderstorm setups feeding UK plume events from the south.
≈23 km 10 days 3-hourly China Meteorological Administration global model; useful as an independent ensemble member for medium-range UK guidance.
≈10 km 12 days 3-hourly Korea Meteorological Administration global model; good resolution for synoptic-scale UK weather systems at medium range.
UK-Specific & Regional Models
1.5 km (inner domain) ~120 hours ~1 min Excellent for UK thunderstorms: explicitly resolves convection; best short‑range storm model.
~2.2 km 5 days Ensemble cycles Probabilistic thunderstorm risk: great for uncertainty in storm initiation/coverage.
2.2 km (inferred) Multi‑decadal climate projections Hourly output Excellent for extreme rainfall & convective climatology; validated for UK storm extremes.
≈4 km 5 days 1-hourly Met Office 4 km convection-permitting European domain; excellent for resolving deep convection over the UK at medium-short range.
1.3–2.5 km 42–48 hours 1‑hourly output Very strong for deep convection; useful for UK plume events when French storms advect north.
2.5 km 48–60 hours 1‑hourly Good for North Sea convection, Irish Sea convergence, and UK‑adjacent mesoscale features.
2.2 km 48 hours 1‑hourly Excellent for continental thunderstorm plumes that sometimes reach SE England.
2.2 km 27–48 hours 1‑hourly Useful for German‑origin MCSs that occasionally track toward the UK.
≈7 km 120 hours 1–3-hourly Good for medium‑range European thunderstorm environments that influence UK risk.
≈4 km 3 days 1-hourly High-resolution regional model covering the UK on Meteologix; useful for short-range convective detail.
High-res blend 5 days 1-hourly Multi-model high-resolution blend covering UK; reduces systematic biases of individual models for precipitation and temperature.
High-res blend 5 days 1-hourly Multi-model central European blend covering UK; useful for scenarios where storm tracks originate from continental Europe.

📍 Location

⚙️ Forecast Settings

📖 Parameter Reference

CAPE — Convective Available Potential Energy (J/kg). Primary fuel for thunderstorms.
0–300 weak · 300–1000 moderate · 1000–2500 strong · 2500+ extreme
Lifted Index — Stability index (°C). More negative = more unstable.
>2 stable · 0–2 near neutral · −1 to −3 slightly unstable · −3 to −6 moderately · <−6 extremely unstable
250 hPa Jet Stream Wind — Upper-level wind shear organising severe thunderstorms (km/h).
<60 weak · 60–90 moderate · 90–150 strong · 150+ very strong
Precipitation — Hourly accumulation (mm/h).
<0.5 light · 0.5–2 moderate · 2–10 heavy · 10+ extreme/convective
2m Temperature — Surface air temperature (°C).
Dewpoint — Low-level moisture (°C).
15+ °C significantly favours severe storms
Surface Wind Speed — 10 m wind (km/h).
<20 light · 20–40 moderate · 40–60 strong · 60+ storm-force
925 hPa Wind — ~750 m altitude (km/h). Key 0–1 km shear layer for tornadoes.
850 hPa Wind — ~1500 m (km/h). Low-level jet and warm-air advection.
700 hPa Wind — ~3000 m (km/h). Contributes to 0–3 km shear.
500 hPa Wind — ~5500 m (km/h). Deep-layer shear for supercell organisation.
700 hPa Temp — Mid-level temperature (°C). Used for lapse-rate calculation.
500 hPa Temp — Upper-level temperature (°C). Cold aloft = steep lapse rates.
CIN — Convective Inhibition (J/kg). Moderate cap aids explosive initiation.
0 to −25 no cap · −25 to −100 supportive · −100 to −200 strong · <−200 extreme
Freezing Level — 0 °C isotherm height (m). Lower = larger hail survives.
<1500 m very low · 1500–2500 low · 2500–3500 moderate · 3500+ high

Data: Open-Meteo API — GFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF EPS, UKMO, ICON, GEM, ACCESS-G, GEFS and more

🌍 Global Weather Teleconnections & UK Impacts

A teleconnection is a statistical or dynamical link between weather or climate anomalies in widely separated parts of the world. The indices below are the major patterns that influence UK weather on monthly-to-decadal timescales. Monthly data is sourced from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Hover over any chart for the exact monthly value.

Data: NOAA PSL Climate Indices — updated monthly. Positive/negative thresholds ±0.5.

📊 Parameter Matrix

Which parameters are available across each NWP model.